A strong El Niño weather pattern is likely to develop this year, raising concerns about more severe droughts, floods, heatwaves, and other extreme weather events across parts of the world, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The UN weather agency said there is an 80 per cent chance that El Nino will emerge between June and August and a 90 per cent chance it will persist until at least November.
Scientists warn that the effects of the weather phenomenon could be significantly amplified by climate change, increasing the risk of disasters and making 2027 potentially the hottest year ever recorded.
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops every two to seven years when trade winds weaken and sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. The phenomenon typically leads to rising global temperatures and major shifts in rainfall patterns, causing drought in some regions and excessive rainfall in others.
While El Nino is not new, experts say this year’s event could be particularly concerning because it may be stronger than average and is occurring against the backdrop of a warming planet.
The WMO noted that some forecast models indicate the possibility of a strong El Nino, defined by sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean rising at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above average.
Scientists say climate change has already increased global temperatures by about 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, creating conditions that intensify the impact of natural weather events.
Professor Piers Forster of the University of Leeds said climate change effectively amplifies the effects of El Nino.
“When we get an El Nino, because of the underlying climate change, these things become more intensified and they’re more impactful,” he said.
The combination of climate change and El Nino has prompted warnings that 2027 could surpass existing global temperature records. The current record was set in 2024, another year marked by a strong El Nino event.
Experts say the consequences could be felt across multiple sectors, including agriculture, food production, energy supply and public health.
In southern Africa, where El Nino typically reduces rainfall, researchers warn that farming communities could face greater challenges as climate change worsens dry conditions.
Senior climate researcher Izidine Pinto of the Netherlands Meteorological Institute said below-average rainfall could become more severe and prolonged, increasing pressure on rain-fed agriculture and hydropower generation.
“Climate change will make that below-normal rainfall more intense, so it will last longer or have less rainfall, and that will affect agriculture, especially rain-fed farmers in the region,” Pinto said.
Scientists also warn of heightened flood risks in regions that normally experience heavier rainfall during El Nino years.
In Brazil, devastating floods in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024 killed more than 180 people and displaced around 600,000 residents. Researchers found that both climate change and El Nino contributed to the extreme rainfall that triggered the disaster.
Climate experts say a similarly strong El Nino this year could increase the likelihood of comparable events.
Beyond droughts and floods, warmer ocean temperatures could also create favourable conditions for stronger tropical cyclones and hurricanes, particularly in the Pacific region.
Antonio Navarra, head of Italy’s Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, said El Nino injects enormous amounts of energy into the climate system, making extreme weather events more intense.
Some scientists believe the conditions expected during this El Nino may offer a glimpse of what could become normal in the coming years as global temperatures continue to rise.
They argue that the extreme weather linked to El Nino today may resemble everyday climate conditions in a warmer future, underscoring the urgency of efforts to address climate change and strengthen resilience against weather-related disasters.
