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ANALYSIS: Deterrence, Justice, and ‘Empty’ Gallows By Morayo Nwabufo

ANALYSIS: Deterrence, Justice, and ‘Empty’ Gallows By Morayo Nwabufo

September 9, 2026
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ANALYSIS: Deterrence, Justice, and ‘Empty’ Gallows By Morayo Nwabufo

by thelink
September 9, 2026
in Column, Opinion, Top Stories
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ANALYSIS: Deterrence, Justice, and ‘Empty’ Gallows By Morayo Nwabufo
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The recent decision by the Senate of Nigeria to amend the Terrorism Act, mandating the death penalty for all convicted kidnappers, has been met with predictable public relief.

In a nation battered by mass abductions and the trauma of relentless insecurity, the legislature’s move to deploy the death penalty, the judicial equivalent of a nuclear option, reflects a government desperate to project strength against a crime wave that is haemorrhaging public trust.

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While the political and emotional appeal of capital punishment is undeniable, its effectiveness as a deterrent in the complex, compromised Nigerian context is a highly contentious issue that demands sober, cogent analysis. The Senate’s proposal, while emotionally satisfying, risks being a monumental distraction from the real work needed to secure our nation.

The Illusion of Finality, Why Severity Fails

Nigeria’s criminal justice architecture is already equipped with the death penalty for heinous offenses, including armed robbery and murder. Yet, these crimes continue unabated, demonstrating a fundamental flaw in our security response: the problem is not the severity of the penalty, but the certainty of the conviction.

The stark reality is that the vast majority of kidnappers and bandits are never apprehended, and even fewer are successfully prosecuted. Introducing a harsher penalty into a system riddled with poor investigative capacity, corrupted police processes, and endless judicial delays only ensures that the handful of criminals who are caught face a more extreme fate. The criminal ecosystem, meanwhile, continues to thrive on the guarantee of impunity. The death penalty is irrelevant to a criminal who knows the odds of prosecution are practically zero.

Global human rights bodies have long argued that the death penalty for crimes like kidnapping can be tragically counterproductive. If a kidnapper knows they face the same terminal fate whether the victim is released alive or killed, it removes any incentive for the preservation of life. It creates a perverse dynamic where a live victim becomes a high-risk liability that must be eliminated to cover tracks. The focus should be on rescue and recovery, not on a punishment that could inadvertently seal the victim’s fate.

The ‘Empty Gallows’ Syndrome

Crucially, Nigeria maintains a de facto moratorium on executions. Though death sentences are passed frequently, they are rarely carried out, leading to a massive backlog of thousands on death row. Criminals are aware of this judicial reality. The Senate’s proposal, therefore, rings hollow without a simultaneous, comprehensive overhaul of the entire judicial and correctional apparatus. Until we can ensure timely trials and the actual execution of sentences (should the moratorium be lifted), the new law will be nothing more than a symbolic gesture, a threat written in sand.

Addressing the Root Cause and The Economy of Crime

The Senate’s motion, while timely in its intent, treats a symptom, not the disease. Kidnapping has metastasized in Nigeria because it has morphed into a highly lucrative criminal economy fueled by extreme poverty, youth unemployment, and the disintegration of state authority in rural areas.

The Dark Calculus: A Business, Not Just a Crime

Kidnapping has surpassed other forms of crime due to its profitability and relatively low operational risk. It is a calculated business model that exploits ungoverned spaces and the perceived weakness of state institutions that are often ill-equipped or unwilling to pursue armed gangs deep into the forests.

The Real Deterrent of Making Crime Unviable

The only sustainable deterrent to this enterprise is to make the business of abduction non-viable. This requires a three-pronged strategy that targets the criminal network’s cash flow and freedom of movement which is cutting the cash flow, massive investment in state security presence and judicial efficiency.

This is how the nation can strictly enforce existing laws that prohibit the payment of ransom, and effectively track and freeze the financial networks including the use of informal money transfer systems of terror groups and their collaborators. Of course with a sustainable framework for deploying well-trained, equipped, and community-integrated security forces in rural zones that are currently controlled by bandits, transforming these areas from ungoverned territories into secure spaces. Albeit establishing special courts dedicated solely to terrorism and kidnapping to ensure speedy trials, airtight convictions, and prompt judgment, thereby restoring faith in the justice system.

Further asserting that classifying kidnapping as an act of terrorism is appropriate and necessary given its impact on state stability and civilian life. However, linking it to the death penalty without fixing the foundation of the justice and security sectors is merely a political performance designed for public applause.

A death sentence on paper will not stop a criminal who knows the odds of prosecution are less than one percent.

The Senate’s attention is in the right place, but the solution must be found in the certainty of punishment and the dismantling of the criminal economy, not just in the severity of the legal decree.

The views and opinions expressed in this and all columns, analysis pieces, and opinion editorials (Op-Eds) published under the Contributor’s Column section of THELINK NEWS are solely those of the individual author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy, position, or endorsement of THELINK NEWS , its management, or its editorial board. THELINK NEWS  is committed to fostering robust public discourse and presenting diverse viewpoints. Publication of any article should not be construed as an agreement with the author’s perspective.

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