Global food prices are expected to climb further in the coming months and remain elevated into 2027 as conflicts disrupt shipping routes, fertilizer costs increase and weather conditions threaten agricultural production.
The pressure is already being felt across parts of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, where rising food costs are squeezing household budgets and making essential staples increasingly difficult for low-income families to afford.
In Indonesia, rice prices have reached record levels amid concerns that delayed rainfall could affect production. India has recorded sharp increases in sugar, onions and pulses following poor harvests, while the cost of unsubsidized bread in Egypt has risen by 25 per cent since July.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s chief economist, Maximo Torero, has warned that the combined pressures on food supplies could become more severe towards the end of 2026 and continue through next year.
The organization’s Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest level since November 2022, reflecting increases in internationally traded food commodities.
World Bank data also show that food prices rose faster than overall inflation in 22 per cent of 150 countries assessed during the September quarter, compared with 14 per cent in the previous quarter.
The impact is particularly severe in lower- and middle-income countries, where households typically spend a larger share of their earnings on food.
Many have reduced his food consumption as prices rise beyond what they can comfortably afford.
Conflicts and weather disruptions squeeze supplies
Several overlapping crises are adding to the pressure on global food markets.
Attacks on grain infrastructure in the Black Sea region have disrupted wheat shipments, forcing major importers, including Egypt and Indonesia, to seek alternative supplies. Insecurity around the Red Sea has also diverted vessels onto longer routes around Africa, increasing delivery times and freight expenses.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has pushed up fuel costs and disrupted fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz, adding to the cost of producing and transporting food.
At the same time, El Niño-related dry conditions are threatening agricultural output in India and parts of Southeast Asia.
Wheat prices have risen by more than 30 per cent in 2026, while rice prices in major Asian exporting countries have increased by between 10 and 13 per cent despite substantial inventories. Fertilizer prices have retreated from earlier wartime peaks but remain high.
Higher transport costs are compounding the problem. Freight rates on some important routes, including shipments from the Black Sea to Southeast Asia, have risen by around 50 per cent as fuel prices and war-related insurance premiums increase.
Food producers are also facing higher costs for labour, energy and other inputs.
In Egypt, the price of a large loaf of unsubsidized bread has increased from about four Egyptian pounds in July to five pounds. Cooking oil prices in the United Arab Emirates have risen by roughly 40 per cent, while vegetable oil prices in Indonesia have climbed seven per cent this year.
India has also recorded monthly increases of more than 10 per cent in the prices of sugar, onions and pulses, reflecting production shortfalls.
Manish Tiwary, chairman and managing director of Nestlé India, has identified higher commodity costs as one of the factors contributing to the difficult operating environment facing food businesses.
Import demand could push prices higher
Analysts warn that the next phase of food inflation could be driven by countries returning to international markets to replenish supplies.
Some major importers in the Middle East and Africa delayed purchases after strong domestic harvests. With local stocks declining, those countries may soon need to buy more grain from global suppliers, increasing competition for available cargoes.
Alexander Karavaytsev, a senior economist at the International Grains Council in London, has warned that a fresh wave of buying could emerge within months as importers return to the market.
Although global grain inventories reached high levels in recent years, the buffer provided by those stocks is coming under pressure, according to the FAO.
As reserves shrink and demand increases, further rises in commodity prices could become more pronounced.
Food manufacturers are also beginning to feel the effects of higher prices as they renew supply contracts. Companies that typically purchase raw materials under three- to six-month agreements are having to negotiate new deals at increased rates.
Currency weakness is adding to the burden in some importing countries. In Indonesia, the falling value of the rupiah has made imported food ingredients and shipping services more expensive when converted into local currency.
Franciscus Welirang, a director of Indonesian food producer PT Indofood, has identified rising freight charges and the weaker currency as additional sources of cost pressure.
Supply shortages are also affecting production. Wheat millers in Indonesia have reportedly been operating below capacity because fewer shipments have arrived amid the continuing Russia-Ukraine war.
Data from shipping analytics firm Kpler showed that Indonesian wheat arrivals fell 41 per cent year on year to 491,000 metric tonnes in September.
Harvests remain a key uncertainty
Not all food supplies are currently under strain. Soybean and corn inventories remain ample, although future availability will depend heavily on harvests in the United States and South America.
Higher oil prices have also supported demand for both crops because of their growing use in biofuel production.
Upcoming wheat harvests in the Southern Hemisphere could help ease some pressure on the market. However, weaker-than-expected production in major exporting countries such as Australia and Argentina could add further upward pressure on prices.
Karavaytsev has warned that significant risks remain on the upside for food commodity prices.
Further increases would threaten household purchasing power, particularly among poorer consumers, while raising the risk of social unrest in countries already struggling with high living costs.
Governments could also respond to domestic shortages by restricting food exports, a move that could reduce supplies available to international buyers and intensify price pressures elsewhere.
With conflict-related shipping disruptions, expensive agricultural inputs and uncertain harvests converging, the outlook for global food prices remains fragile as countries prepare for potentially tighter supplies into 2027.
