A failure by the United States and Iran to reach an agreement within weeks on reopening a safe passage for fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a food security crisis in parts of Africa and Asia, a senior United Nations official has warned.
UN Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva said on Wednesday that a UN-backed mechanism to facilitate fertilizer deliveries could be activated within seven to 10 days of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.
Speaking in Bangkok on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, he stressed that time was running out to protect the upcoming planting season.
“It’s absolutely crucial to get the deal in the next few weeks. Otherwise, we will miss the planting season,” Moreira da Silva said.
The United Nations established a taskforce in March to develop a system for moving fertilizer through the strategic waterway. However, the mechanism has yet to become operational because an agreement between the two countries remains elusive.
The White House, US State Department and Iranian Embassy in Bangkok did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Iran has tightened its control over the Strait of Hormuz since US and Israeli strikes on February 28, using the vital shipping route to exert pressure on Washington. The United States, meanwhile, has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports.
Before the conflict, the strait carried about one-third of the world’s traded urea, the most widely used fertilizer, as well as nearly half of global seaborne sulphur shipments, a key ingredient in fertilizer production. The waterway is also one of the world’s most important routes for oil exports.
The Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute said last month that fertilizer shipments from the Gulf remained largely suspended more than six months after the conflict began.
Even during a ceasefire between mid-June and mid-July, fertilizer products made up a “very negligible” proportion of the shipping traffic that resumed, the institute said.
Five Ships a Day Could Keep Supplies Moving
Moreira da Silva said allowing just five vessels a day to pass through the Strait of Hormuz could help maintain fertilizer supplies to countries facing the greatest risk of shortages.
Under the proposed arrangement, a coordination centre in Oman would register vessels and organize safe passage. UN monitors would work with local authorities at Gulf ports to verify cargo loading and track ships throughout their journeys.
Additional inspections could be conducted if countries raised concerns about a vessel or its cargo, he said.
The plan is intended to protect essential agricultural supplies while broader diplomatic negotiations continue.
The potential economic consequences of prolonged disruption are severe. An August report by the International Chamber of Commerce warned that commodity prices could rise by as much as 81 per cent for cereals, 66 per cent for oil crops and 30 per cent for animal products if the crisis persists.
Missing the planting window could further reduce agricultural output and drive up food prices, Moreira da Silva warned.
“If we miss that planting season, the productivity of agriculture would significantly drop and the impact on prices will significantly increase,” he said.
Diplomatic Efforts to Reopen Hormuz Stall
Iran and the United States have exchanged proposals through intermediaries since an interim ceasefire collapsed in June, but negotiations to restore passage through the strait have made little progress.
The talks have been complicated by Tehran’s conditions and Washington’s insistence that Iran’s nuclear programme be addressed from the outset.
Moreira da Silva said the UN initiative could proceed alongside negotiations for a broader agreement intended to secure lasting peace and freedom of navigation.
“What we are telling them is, while you continue your discussions towards a comprehensive deal, let us work, let us do our job,” he said.
He declined to identify the specific obstacles preventing an agreement, noting that discussions with both sides were continuing.
Other Shipping Disruptions Raise Food Security Concerns
The Hormuz crisis is unfolding alongside growing threats to other major maritime routes used to transport food, energy and agricultural inputs.
In the Black Sea, cargo vessels have come under attack, while Iran-backed Houthi militants have mounted an offensive along a key Red Sea shipping corridor.
The disruptions are adding to pressure on global supply chains already exposed to climate-related shocks and rising transport risks.
“What we are witnessing now is a concentration of factors,” Moreira da Silva said, pointing to the climate crisis and simultaneous disruption of maritime chokepoints in the Black Sea, Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.
The UN’s proposed mechanism is aimed at preventing the fertilizer shortage from worsening into a broader food crisis, particularly in vulnerable countries across Africa and Asia, where delays in agricultural inputs could threaten harvests and push up the cost of basic staples.
