Average global temperatures are expected to remain near record levels over the next five years, with the Arctic warming at a much faster pace than the rest of the world, according to a new report released by the United Nations weather agency and the UK Met Office.
The report forecasts that annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will likely range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels recorded between 1850 and 1900.
Scientists warned that at least one year within the period is highly likely to temporarily exceed the critical 1.5°C warming threshold set under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.
“There’s very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature is continuing to rise,” UK Met Office research scientist Melissa Seabrook told Reuters.
The report also projected that one of the years between 2026 and 2030 could surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded globally.
Although a temporary breach of the 1.5°C threshold does not officially mean the Paris Agreement has failed, experts warned that repeated exceedances signal the world is moving dangerously close to long-term climate targets being broken.
“The science is very clear that the window to keeping the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees is closing rapidly,” Seabrook added.
The report highlighted particularly severe warming in the Arctic region, where winter temperatures are expected to rise more than three times faster than the global average over the next five years.
According to the findings, Arctic winter temperatures could increase by around 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average, accelerating sea-ice loss in regions including the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
Scientists warned that rapid Arctic warming could disrupt global weather systems and contribute to more extreme weather events across northern parts of the world.
The report also predicted wetter conditions across parts of northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel region during coming seasons, while drier conditions are expected in the Amazon region.
Meanwhile, a strong El Niño weather pattern is forecast to develop later this year and could extend into 2027, potentially pushing global temperatures to new record levels.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon caused by the warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean and is often associated with higher global temperatures, droughts, flooding and severe weather events worldwide.
