The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has projected a longer-than-normal rainy season in 13 states across the country in 2026, raising implications for agriculture, flood management and infrastructure planning.
The affected states are Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe and Taraba, according to NiMet’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP).
The forecast was presented publicly on Tuesday in Abuja by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, who said the outlook provides critical guidance for farmers, policymakers and disaster management agencies.
NiMet projected an early onset of rains in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa and Taraba States.
In contrast, a late onset of rainfall is expected in Borno State.
On the other end of the season, the agency said rainfall cessation will occur earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger States, while a delayed end of season is anticipated in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna States.
NiMet added that parts of Borno, Yobe and Niger States are likely to experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season overall.
According to the agency, normal annual rainfall amounts are expected in most parts of Nigeria compared to the long-term average. However, above-normal rainfall is forecast for Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall is expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun States.
NiMet also warned of severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days in parts of Oyo and Ogun States during the March–May period. Moderate dry spells are expected in Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River and Delta States, as well as parts of Kogi and Kwara.
For the June–July–August season, the agency predicted severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara States.
NiMet said the Little Dry Season (LDS), commonly referred to as the August break, is expected to begin by late July and be severe and prolonged in Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo States, with 28 to 40 days of little or no rainfall.
A moderate August break is forecast for Ondo State, as well as parts of Kwara and Edo States.
The agency further projected that daytime and nighttime temperatures will be warmer than the long-term average across most parts of the country in January, February, March and May.
NiMet cautioned residents, especially farmers, against assuming that early rains in some southern states signal the full commencement of the rainy season.
“Some significant rains across the southern parts of the country this year should not be taken to mean that the rainy season has started in these places,” the agency said.
It advised those engaged in rain-fed agriculture and other rainfall-dependent activities to rely on the official onset dates in the SCP document or consult NiMet directly for guidance.
The 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction is expected to play a key role in planning for food security, flood control and climate resilience across Nigeria.
