The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, yesterday said that illegal and hidden activities like prostitution and drug peddling will now be included in the calculation of the country’s Gross Domestic Product, GDP.
Meanwhile, NBS has proposed 2019 as a new GDP base year and 2024 as the new base year for inflation computation.
NBS disclosed this at a sensitization workshop on GDP and Consumer Price Index, CPI Rebasing organized in collaboration with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).
According to the bureau, 2019 was proposed as the new GDP base year because economic activities were relatively stable during the year, compared to subsequent years disrupted by the impact of COVID and policy shifts..
The bureau added that the rebased GDP is expected to capture new segments such as the digital economy, activities of pension fund administrators, National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), Nigerian Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSTIF), activities of modular refineries, domestic households as employers of labour and coverage of illegal and hidden activities.
Elaborating on the inclusion of illegal and hidden activities in the classification of economic activities for computation of the GDP, Head of National Accounts, NBS, Dr. Baba Madu, said: “Illegal activities will be in line with the national best practices, that is System of National Accounts, SNA 2008.
“If you are into, for instance, drugs, there are some countries, it is this drug that is driving their economy. It is illegal here because there is no legal backing. Also prostitution, they also earn income. Some even live bigger than those in the formal sector. The SNA does not say no to these, it is we. But the challenge is the legal backing and how do we get the data.
“And then, of course, the hidden economy. If I ask you, how much do you earn in a month, you will lower your income. Or if somebody is selling provision in a store, and before you know it he started selling India hemp. Those are the things we are seeing. There are challenges all over the world. But the beauty is that they are less than 3.0 to 3.5% of the GDP.”
Highlighting the importance of the GDP and CPI rebasing exercise, Statistician General, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, said: “The rebasing is a vital exercise that ensures our economic indicators are current and accurate reflections of the economic realities on the ground. As economies evolve, new industries emerge, and consumption patterns shift, it becomes imperative to update our statistical measures to capture these changes. Rebasing our GDP and CPI allows us to align with these transformations, providing a more precise and relevant picture of Nigeria’s economic landscape. This process is foundational to informed policymaking, strategic planning, and effective governance; hence, it is one exercise that NBS is conducting with significant importance and professionalism.
Highlighting the benefits of GDP rebasing, Chief Executive Officer, NESG, Dr. Tayo Aduloju, in his welcome address, said: “Accurate data enhances credibility. Our debt-to-GDP ratio, a critical indicator of fiscal health, dropped from 19% to 11% after the 2014 rebasing.
“This improved Nigeria’s creditworthiness, making us a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment. Investors are drawn to transparency and growth potential, and rebasing sends a clear message: we understand our economy, and we are open for business.
“Second, rebasing sharpens policymaking. It provides a detailed map of our economic terrain, enabling governments to identify high-growth sectors for scaling and low-growth sectors that require targeted interventions to drive impactful and balanced development. For example, after Ghana’s 2010 rebasing—which resulted in a 60% GDP increase—its policymakers could better plan for infrastructure and social investments, fueling sustained growth.”
