The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper, setting the core macroeconomic assumptions for the upcoming 2026 budget, including a revenue target of ₦34.33 trillion and an exchange rate assumption of ₦1,512 to the US dollar.
This key decision outlines the Federal Government’s financial expectations and spending priorities for the next three years.
The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, detailed the approved parameters after the FEC meeting:
| Parameter | 2026 Approved Benchmark | Details |
| Total FG Revenue | ₦34.33 trillion | Consolidated revenue from all federal sources, including ₦4.98 trillion remitted by government-owned enterprises. |
| Exchange Rate | ₦1,512 / $1 | This rate is a budgetary assumption and was reportedly set conservatively, taking into account the potential for increased spending and currency volatility ahead of the 2027 general election year. |
| Oil Price | $64.85 per barrel | This is a cautious benchmark, deliberately set below Nigeria’s typical selling price for its premium Bonny Light crude. |
| Oil Production | 1.80 million barrels per day (mbpd) | This is the conservative figure used for budget planning. The government’s production target is higher at 2.06 mbpd. |
| GDP Growth | 4.68 percent | The targeted economic growth rate for the year. |
| Inflation | 18 percent (average) | The projection for the average inflation rate across the year. |
While the government aims for high revenue, the framework shows continued reliance on borrowing to fund major expenditure.
Total Federal Government Revenue (₦34.33 trillion) is projected to be 16% lower than the 2025 budget estimate; total federation revenue (to be shared among all three tiers of government) is estimated at ₦50.74 trillion; the fiscal deficit for 2026 is projected at ₦20.1 trillion, which represents 3.61% of the estimated GDP while debt service is estimated to consume a significant portion of the budget at ₦15.91 trillion.
The MTEF is a statutory document that provides the foundation for the preparation of the annual Appropriation Bill, which will be transmitted to the National Assembly.
